SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232004
WVZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-232200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1369
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN OH...MIDDLE TN...SRN/ERN KY...WV.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 541...
VALID 232004Z - 232200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 541 CONTINUES.
CONTINUE WW ALONG AND E OF COLD FRONT...WHICH STILL WAS ANALYZED W
OF WW AREA AS OF 1945Z. PRIMARY SVR THREAT IS WITH BKN BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT EXTENDED FROM OH/WV BORDER REGION SWWD TO NEAR
BNA...AND WHICH SHOULD CROSS ERN KY...NRN MIDDLE TN AND WRN WV
DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS. WEAKER CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THAT ACTIVITY AND
COLD FRONT WILL LIMIT TSTM COVERAGE AND MAKE SUSTAINED DEVELOPMENT
POTENTIAL MORE CONDITIONAL...THOUGH ISOLATED TCU AND SMALL CB ARE
EVIDENT IN THAT CORRIDOR. DESPITE WLY COMPONENT OF LOW-LEVEL
WINDS...ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR WILL PERSIST TO SUPPORT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES IN 35-45 KT RANGE OVER MOST OF WW AREA.
SVR POTENTIAL MAY SPREAD SOMEWHAT E OF WW OVER CENTRAL WV...BUT MORE
LIMITED IN SCOPE GIVEN SOMEWHAT DRIER...LESS STRONGLY HEATED...LOWER
THETAE AIR OVER ERN WV. TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED
AND SVR POTENTIAL MORE MRGL/CONDITIONAL WITH SWWD EXTENT FROM SRN
PORTIONS WW AREA ACROSS MIDDLE/SWRN TN...AHEAD OF FRONT. WHILE SFC
THETAE AND MLCAPE EACH INCREASE WITH SWWD EXTENT OVER THOSE
AREAS...CONVERGENCE WEAKENS...AND SHOULD NOT INCREASE WITH TIME
GIVEN PASSAGE OF MID-UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT N
OF AREA.
..EDWARDS.. 06/23/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...
PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 35848823 39568279 39268136 38588043 37848105 36028453
35108731 35848823
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