MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1376

ACUS11 KWNS 242013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242013
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-242145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1376
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0313 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN PA...NJ...DELMARVA REGION...SERN
VA...NERN NC.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 544...545...

VALID 242013Z - 242145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
544...545...CONTINUES.

SVR POTENTIAL CONTINUES OVER WWS...WHICH MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND WRN
COLD FRONT AS DESCRIBED BELOW.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO MOVE EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL NY...ERN PA...AND NRN MD. FRONT OVER ERN VA AND NRN NC IS
MANIFEST ATTM AS WIND SHIFT...WITH TEMPORARILY WARMER SFC TEMPS AT
SEVERAL LOCALES BEHIND IT DUE TO DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND DIABATIC
HEATING OF DRIER AIR MASS. THIS FRONT SHOULD SERVE AS WRN BOUND OF
SVR THREAT. QUASISTATIONARY CONFLUENCE LINE FROM RDU AREA NEWD
ACROSS SRN CHESAPEAKE BAY TO SRN DE ALSO IS FOCUSING STG-SVR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IN AND NEAR WW 545. MEANWHILE...ERN FRONTAL ZONE HAS
MOVED SLIGHTLY SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN NJ...PERHAPS WITH AID FROM
OUTFLOW PRODUCED BY EARLIER CONVECTION OVER JERSEY SHORE. THIS
FRONT INTERSECTS ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER PHL AREA...WHERE
ADDITIONAL TSTM INITIATION MAY BE FOCUSED. S OF THIS INTERSECTION
AND E OF WRN FRONT...AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH SFC DEW
POINTS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F...COMBINING WITH AFTERNOON DIABATIC
HEATING TO YIELD NARROW CORRIDOR OF MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG OVER SRN
NJ AND DELMARVA REGION THAT BROADENS SSWWD ACROSS SERN VA AND ERN
NC.

..EDWARDS.. 06/24/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...

LAT...LON 36157573 35677572 35397605 35347652 35817836 37037772
37727681 39407618 41427512 41307466 40957392 39687408
38937486 38897509 38737506 38347507 37897533 37467563
37117589 37057613 36937598 36157573

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