SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251924
SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-252100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1384
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...FAR WRN SD...FAR WRN NEB...FAR NERN
CO...FAR SERN MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 251924Z - 252100Z
THE THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS IS
INCREASING...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH IS POSSIBLE.
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES OVER THE MEDICINE BOW MOUNTAINS...AND
MORE RECENTLY THE LARAMIE MOUNTAINS...OF SRN WY...IN RESPONSE TO
OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DRIVEN BY
STRONG HEATING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THIS
DEVELOPMENT...A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERLAYS THIS
REGION...WITH THE DENVER 12Z SOUNDING INDICATING A 700-500-MB LAPSE
RATE OF 8.2 C/KM. DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...CONTINUED INSOLATION
SUPPORTING FURTHER STEEPENING OF LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL...AND DEEPENING OF
EXISTING...CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF ERN WY AND FAR NERN CO.
ONCE WLY/W-SWLY STEERING-LAYER FLOW SHIFTS CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHERE GREATER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT...THE OVERALL SVR THREAT COULD INCREASE.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AOA 20F SUPPORTING SVR WIND GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
ALSO BE ENHANCED ALONG A WEAK SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM SERN MT INTO CNTRL WY...WHICH COINCIDES WITH A REGION
OF RELATIVELY RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
..COHEN.. 06/25/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
LAT...LON 45200458 44550351 42760268 41300302 40720353 40590430
40690521 40950551 41300559 41610545 42070515 42530523
42890571 43380625 43750644 44520630 45040546 45200458
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