MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1386

ACUS11 KWNS 252024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252024
NDZ000-252130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1386
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 252024Z - 252130Z

A FEW SVR STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO INITIATE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN ND
INVOF A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NWRN ND INTO SERN MT.
NEAR AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE...MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG ARE
COMMON...OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION AMIDST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S. WHILE MID-LEVEL ASCENT IS LACKING IN
THE ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT SFC DIABATIC HEATING COULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT/DEEPENING OF CONVECTION. WITH THIS REGION ON
THE ERN FRINGES OF THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE
TIGHTER HEIGHT GRADIENT CENTERED OVER ERN MT...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDES OF 30 TO 40 KT COULD SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND
A SVR THREAT. MULTICELLULAR AND OCCASIONALLY SUPERCELLULAR MODES MAY
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS...AND
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A
SVR TSTM WATCH.

..COHEN.. 06/25/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 47480335 48890229 48929981 47909908 46150043 46070291
46670352 47480335

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