SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252321
NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-260045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1387
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0621 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB...WRN SD AND SWRN ND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 252321Z - 260045Z
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INTENSIFICATION OF WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS SPREADING EWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT...ANY WW ISSUANCE WILL ULTIMATELY
DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
EARLY THIS EVENING WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE INITIATING ALONG A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WRN ND INTO EXTREME NWRN SD AND NRN WY AS
WELL AS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL AND SRN WY...SPREADING EWD INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH 2000 J/KG MLCAPE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.
HOWEVER...STORMS DEVELOPING SO FAR DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY ROBUST
AND APPARENTLY ARE STRUGGLING WITH A CAP ASSOCIATED WITH ENEWD
ADVECTING EML. SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL INCREASE
WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WHICH ALONG WITH MODEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT RAISES UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT. GIVEN
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND 40-50 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR...POTENTIAL STILL EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE AND PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
HOWEVER...DUE TO CAPPING CONCERNS ANY WW ISSUANCE WILL DEPEND ON
CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
..DIAL.. 06/25/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...
LAT...LON 44910357 45410334 46310260 46140130 44570015 42439982
41540161 41580375 42560387 43000394 44220397 44910357
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