SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260007
MOZ000-KSZ000-260200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1388
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0707 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN KS INTO CNTRL MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 260007Z - 260200Z
STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO SOMEWHERE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR...OR JUST SOUTH. THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL.
HOWEVER...GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES...A TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS FAR ERN KS INTO WRN AND CNTRL MO HAS ONLY
BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED/AGITATED LOOKING OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING. GIVEN FAIRLY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
AND THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...CONVECTIVE
INITIATION HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE SBCAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 4000 J/KG IN A MOSTLY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
SO...WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WHEN/IF
INITIATION WILL OCCUR...EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
NEAR AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY AS A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRACKS EWD
ACROSS KS TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT UPPER SUPPORT FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT.
WHILE STORMS MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP IN CLUSTERS...EXPECT THEM TO
CONGEAL INTO A S/SEWD MOVING LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERN INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..LEITMAN.. 06/26/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 39199510 39469440 39539346 39469219 39359175 39079088
38889063 38599045 38269038 37929058 37589098 37449115
37029259 37009365 37029412 37109461 37429507 38139543
38739544 39199510
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