MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1420

ACUS11 KWNS 272001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272000
COZ000-NMZ000-TXZ000-272200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1420
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CO...NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 272000Z - 272200Z

POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID ISOLATED HIGH-BASED STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL DUE TO CAPPING AND
LACK OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER ASCENT SUGGEST THAT A WATCH IS UNLIKELY
AT THIS TIME.

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL DATA CONFIRM WELL-DEFINED
FRONTAL SURGE HAS TAKEN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY WITH BOTH
SURFACE AND AVAILABLE PROFILER DATA INDICATING A RELATIVELY DEEP ELY
COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PROCESS HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC ASCENT THAT...WHEN COMBINED WITH
HEATING AND DEEP MIXING...WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN HIGH-BASED
TSTMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
/LOW 50S F DEWPOINTS/ IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WAS ALSO
CONTRIBUTING TO AN AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY...ALBEIT
CAPPED...PRIMARILY EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SO FAR...ONLY
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED OVER SRN AREAS BUT POCKETS OF
BUILDING CU/TCU APPEAR TO BE INCREASING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SRN NM TO SRN CO.

HIGH LCL/LFC AND INVERTED-V PROFILES BENEATH ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN
STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SUGGEST THAT STRONG/DAMAGING
DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PRONOUNCED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE
UPDRAFT SOURCE REGION ALSO SUGGESTS A KINEMATIC REGIME FAVORABLE FOR
STORM PERSISTENCE AND ORGANIZATION. IF CONVECTION CAN SPREAD EAST
TOWARD INSTABILITY AXIS...AND CONTINUED HEATING CAN OVERCOME
REMAINING INHIBITION...AN INCREASE IN SEVERE HAIL AND WIND COULD
EVOLVE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN NM.

..CARBIN.. 06/27/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 32110447 31940480 32250519 32640575 33190626 33620651
34170678 34960696 35450688 36000660 36430633 36740594
36960572 37700506 37370484 37020492 36440541 35760583
35210576 34690578 34260564 33770556 33250532 32800496
32110447

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