MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1423

ACUS11 KWNS 272045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272044
WIZ000-MIZ000-272215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1423
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN WI...WRN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 272044Z - 272215Z

ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF
MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY LEADING AN OCCLUDED FRONT OVER NRN
WI. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP SWD ALONG CUMULUS
CONVERGENCE LINES WITHIN THIS INSTABILITY CORRIDOR BETWEEN 21Z AND
23Z...WHICH ALSO EXTENDS SWD TO THE EAST OF THE TRIPLE POINT AND
COLD FRONT. THIS DEVELOPMENT WOULD ALSO BE SUPPORTED BY DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT LEADING THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY REGION...WITH THE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS APPROACHING
FROM CNTRL MN. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY TRACK EWD ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AS THE INSTABILITY
CORRIDOR SHIFTS EWD. WHILE STABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY IN PLACE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN
WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI...THE NARROW WEDGE OF MOISTURE
LEADING THE MIGRATORY OCCLUDED FRONT COULD SUPPORT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR A THREAT FOR DEEPER CONVECTION INTO THESE AREAS
AFTER 22Z. WITH SWLY TO WSWLY BULK SHEAR VECTORS POSSESSING
MAGNITUDES OF 30 TO 35 KT...OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
COULD ENSUE. HOWEVER...THE RELATIVELY MEAGER AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ABSENCE OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MINIMIZE
THE DEGREE OF POTENTIAL BUOYANCY TO LARGELY MITIGATE THE SEVERE
THREAT. WHILE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...THE ANTICIPATED
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A WW ATTM.

..COHEN.. 06/27/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON 46839101 46739028 46868959 46858866 46448796 45688767
45028759 43808767 43278808 43098886 43228969 43779057
44629132 46079141 46839101

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