SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272054
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-272300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1424
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...MO...AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 272054Z - 272300Z
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS BEING EVALUATED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE OZARKS OF SWRN MO AND NWRN AR...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MO. IF STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THESE AREAS IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...A WATCH IS POSSIBLE.
COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION ACROSS SWRN MO MAY BE ONE
AREA FAVORED FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY TAKE FORM ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ACROSS
NRN AR...AS WELL AS ALONG THE SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL MO. THESE LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISMS EXIST AMIDST AN
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHERE INHIBITION HAS LIKELY WEAKENED
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS SOMEWHAT
NONDESCRIPT OVER THE REGION...40-50KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY INDICATE THAT ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP
WOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. BAROCLINITY NEAR THE OUTFLOW AND WEAK
LOW LEVEL FLOW...IN ADDITION TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND POTENTIAL
FOR LOW LFC....ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE REGIME COULD SUPPORT TORNADOES
IF SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP.
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR INCIPIENT DEVELOPMENT
WITH A WATCH POSSIBLE AS IT OCCURS/INCREASES THROUGH THE LATER
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
..CARBIN.. 06/27/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...
LAT...LON 36099242 36329391 36659471 37379478 37749439 38149368
38449292 38439235 37669218 37269176 36609121 36109155
36099242
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