SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282029
KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-282200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1436
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...FAR SWRN NEB...WRN KS...WRN OK
PANHANDLE...FAR NWRN TX PANHANDLE...NERN NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 282029Z - 282200Z
THE THREAT FOR SVR STORMS COULD INCREASE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO
AND NM...WITH THE THREAT SHIFTING EWD TOWARD FAR SWRN NEB...WRN
KS...THE WRN OK PANHANDLE...AND THE FAR NWRN TX PANHANDLE.
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A BUILDING CUMULUS FIELD
OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...AND FARTHER
SOUTH OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS IN NERN NM. AREA RADARS
DEPICT WIDELY SCATTERED DEEPER CONVECTIVE PLUMES EVOLVING FROM THE
CUMULUS FIELD...LIKELY OWING TO OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES IN THE ABSENCE
OF A MORE PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. GPS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SUGGESTS THAT THE
DISCUSSION AREA IS OVER THE NWRN FRINGES OF A PLUME OF RICHER
MOISTURE -- MAINLY FOCUSED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS PER RUC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS -- WITH PWAT VALUES OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH. THIS
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT DIABATIC HEATING OVER ELEVATED
HEAT SOURCES...WILL FOSTER CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MODEST WLY FLOW WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
CONVECTION TOWARD THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AFTER 21Z...WHERE SFC
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. WITH
700-500-MB LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 TO 9.5 C/KM OVERLAYING THIS RELATIVELY
RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...INTENSE UPDRAFTS WILL BE SUPPORTED.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 35 TO 45 KT COULD PROMOTE
SUPERCELLS...WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. OBSERVED SFC
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AROUND 40F WILL KEEP CONVECTION
HIGH-BASED IN NATURE...WITH A THREAT FOR STRONG/DMGG OUTFLOW WINDS.
RECENT RUNS OF THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINEAR CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE SHOULD A LARGER-SCALE COLD POOL
DEVELOP. IF THIS OCCURS...AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS
COULD ENSUE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. RELATIVELY GREATER AMOUNTS OF CINH
OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA COULD MITIGATE THE THREAT
WITH TIME...THOUGH THIS MAY BE OFFSET IF AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL
EVOLVES.
..COHEN.. 06/28/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 40410508 40890476 40950272 40080144 38190126 36570189
35920333 35920447 36520529 37160532 38130501 39030473
39540479 40410508
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