MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1443

ACUS11 KWNS 292041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292041
NMZ000-COZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-292245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1443
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AZ...WRN NM...FAR SWRN CO...FAR SERN UT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 292041Z - 292245Z

A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE SVR WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.

GPS PW IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED MOISTURE SURGE IMPINGING ON
THE SWRN STATES AND ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH
PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN AZ -- I.E.
NEAR OR ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL PWAT VALUES.
WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY HAVING CLIMBED INTO THE 90S OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND TO 100 TO 105 DEGREES OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...OROGRAPHIC ASCENT OWING TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
HAS LED TO BUILDING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND SOME DEEPER CONVECTION
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION
IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS PER CONSENSUS AMONGST
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE.

ONE PARTICULAR AREA OF FAVORED DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR OVER SERN AZ.
IN THIS REGION...SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A PRESSURE TROUGH. ALSO...SLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES WILL SUPPORT LOCALIZED ASCENT OVER THE
SRN SLOPES OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WHILE MODEST AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ARE MAINTAINED OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS -- I.E. DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S -- SUPPORTING GREATER INSTABILITY.

ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA...SBCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1500
J/KG WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION.
DCAPE VALUES OF 1200 TO 1500 J/KG COULD SUPPORT INTENSE MICROBURSTS
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SVR SFC WINDS. RELATIVELY STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL SLY FLOW TOWARD THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION PER VWP DATA COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE THIS THREAT
THROUGH CONVECTIVELY INDUCED DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT. IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT...ANY SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED
SUCH THAT A WW IS NOT REQUIRED.

..COHEN.. 06/29/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...TWC...FGZ...SLC...PSR...

LAT...LON 31331021 31881071 32701108 33621130 34411177 35341235
36551250 37451124 37720943 37590815 36420759 33440823
31610879 31331021

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