MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1454

ACUS11 KWNS 302028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302028
FLZ000-302200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1454
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 302028Z - 302200Z

THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...AND POSSIBLY A SVR STORM OR TWO
WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS...WILL PERSIST INTO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
FL.

WITH GPS PW DATA DEPICTING ABUNDANT DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA -- I.E. PWAT VALUES OF 2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES -- SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FL EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. ONE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...EXTENDING
FROM ERN PALM BEACH TO NWRN BROWARD TO SERN COLLIER COUNTIES...IS
SURGING NWWD...WHILE ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SRN MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY IS SURGING SOUTHWARD. NEAR AND AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...SFC
CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TOWARD THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AREA AND TOWARD THE SRN TIP OF THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH
2200Z. THE THREAT FOR A DMGG WIND GUST OR TWO WILL PERSIST OWING TO
WATER LOADING PROCESSES...WITH DMGG WINDS ALREADY HAVING BEEN
REPORTED AROUND POMPANO BEACH IN BROWARD COUNTY. MEANWHILE...ONGOING
CONVECTION BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY BECOME
INCREASINGLY ELEVATED ATOP THE CONVECTION-REINFORCING COLD
POOL...WITH INCREASING SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION LIKELY
MITIGATING THE THREAT FOR STRONG SFC WINDS. CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LARGELY DIMINISHED THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SVR
STORMS BY 00Z PER CONSENSUS AMONGST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
GUIDANCE.

..COHEN.. 06/30/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...

LAT...LON 25858130 26488108 26988051 26767996 25898005 25128042
25058097 25278124 25858130

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