WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 475

WWUS20 KWNS 142056
SEL5
SPC WW 142056
IAZ000-MOZ000-150400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 475
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
355 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF LAMONI IOWA
TO 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JEFFERSON CITY MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS WEAKENING E OF THE SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE MO RIVER...AND MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO AOA 3000 J/KG. THE
CAP WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING AND AN INCREASE
IN ASCENT FROM THE W AS A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL TROUGH
PROGRESS EWD FROM KS TO MO. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH THE INITIALLY MORE DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT IN
THE AREA OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS N/NW MO. LATER THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE
INTO AN MCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWS AND A CONTINUED RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30025.

...THOMPSON

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