SWODY1
SPC AC 100029
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2011
VALID 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN CO NEWD INTO CNTRL
NEB...
...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS...
CLUSTERS OF CELLS CAPABLE OF WIND AND HAIL PERSIST OVER ERN CO...AND
WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO WRN KS AND SWRN NEB DURING THE EVENING. 00Z
SOUNDINGS SHOWED MODERATE FLOW ALOFT AROUND 30-40 KT WHICH WILL
STEER STORMS EWD WITH TIME. TO THE S...VERY HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED AIR
EXISTS AND ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...IT
WILL ALSO BRING DRIER AIR NWD WHICH MAY MITIGATE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
FARTHER N FROM SD INTO MN AND IA...SPLITTING CELLS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED OVER CNTRL SD WITH HAIL LIKELY. VIS IMAGERY FROM ERN NEB
NEWD SHOWS LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY. THE MOST LIKELY
FOCUS FOR INITIATION HERE WOULD BE FROM THE ONGOING CELLS SEWD ALONG
A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER. BUT LOSS OF HEATING MAY
RESULT IN ONLY AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...AND HAVE REMOVED MUCH OF
THE AREA FROM SLIGHT RISK.
..JEWELL.. 07/10/2011
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