SWODY1
SPC AC 170038
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2011
VALID 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ND AND MN...
...ND/MN...
STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY
RESPONSIBLE FOR LATE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG WEAK SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS
ND. ONE LONGER LIVED SUPERCELL...OVER WELLS COUNTY ND...HAS
PRODUCED TORNADOES AND OTHER MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE NOW
FORMING EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS INITIAL STORM. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
EVOLVED WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THAT EXHIBITS EXTREME
INSTABILITY...HENCE A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED WITH
THESE SUPERCELLS AS THEY PROPAGATE EWD INTO NWRN MN. 00Z SOUNDINGS
FROM THE DAKOTAS SUGGEST A SHARP CAP EXISTS OVER SD AND THIS IS
SUPPORTED IN THE VIS IMAGERY BY THE LACK OF CU SOUTH OF WW649.
GIVEN THE INHIBITION OBSERVED...AND THE MEAGER FORCING OVER THIS
REGION...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN OVER ND
EXTENDING INTO NRN MN.
...NRN ROCKIES...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NRN ROCKIES WITHIN DEEP SWLY FLOW. AN AXIS OF PWAT VALUES RANGING
FROM .75-1 INCH EXTENDS FROM SWRN ORE INTO NWRN MT. THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS DEEP INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...THOUGH INSTABILITY IS A BIT TOO MARGINAL TO
WARRANT MORE THAN 5% PROBS FOR SEVERE ACROSS THIS REGION. FARTHER
EAST...A COUPLE OF SEVERE TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CNTRL MT
DRIVEN BY STRONG SFC HEATING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.
..DARROW.. 07/17/2011
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