SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022157
AZZ000-022300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1472
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0457 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL AZ
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 022157Z - 022300Z
POTENTIAL FOR A DRY MICROBURST OR TWO APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
ACROSS S-CNTRL AZ --INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX METRO-- LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. STORMS THAT DEVELOP/DECAY MAY
POSE AN ISOLD DMGG WIND RISK. VERY ISOLD NATURE OF THREAT WILL
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR SEVERE TSTM WATCH CONSIDERATION.
SURFACE/SATELLITE COMPOSITE SHOWS HOT TEMPS IN THE 110S ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS S OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. DEEPENING CONVECTION/STORMS
ARE PROPAGATING WWD FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS S-CNTRL AZ.
GIVEN THE HOT SURFACE TEMPS AND MARGINAL MOISTURE...SURFACE T/TD
SPREADS OF OVER 70 DEG F HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN A DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE FROM THE SURFACE TO
MID LEVELS...WHICH WILL BE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR DOWNDRAFT TRANSPORT.
MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE APPRECIABLE DMGG WIND THREAT ARE 1)
LACK OF RICHER MOISTURE 2) WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. DESPITE THOSE
FACTORS...KIWA 88D IMAGERY DISPLAYED A MICROBURST SIGNATURE NEAR THE
PINAL/MARICOPA COUNTY LINE IN THE PAST HOUR AND AN ELONGATED COLD
POOL SURGING WWD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS STORMS/COLD POOLS MOVE WWD TOWARDS THE I-17 CORRIDOR NEAR
AND N OF THE PHX METRO.
..SMITH.. 07/02/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON 33051222 33871248 34751219 34921183 34481117 33901034
33551036 33001088 32911139 33051222
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