SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062019
MTZ000-WYZ000-062245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1526
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MT...NRN WY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 062019Z - 062245Z
A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS COULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
ISOLATED/DISORGANIZED NATURE OF ANY SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
THE NEED FOR A WW.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A SFC LOW OVER NERN MT WITH A TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING SWD/SWWD FROM THE LOW INTO FAR NRN WY. A REGION OF
MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- I.E. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO
LOWER 60S -- IS FOUND INVOF THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING WWD/NWWD INTO
PORTIONS OF CNTRL MT. WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-7 C/KM
OVERLAYING THIS MOISTURE...MLCAPE VALUES HAVE CLIMBED TO 500-1500
J/KG. OROGRAPHIC ASCENT HAS RECENTLY CONTRIBUTED TO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION OVER THE LITTLE BELT MOUNTAINS SE OF GREAT FALLS...AND
OVER THE ABSAROKA RANGE AND BIG HORN MOUNTAINS FARTHER TO THE SE.
ADDITIONAL SFC HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD
SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY INTO THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY MOVING OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS
MAY ALSO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS...ENHANCED BY EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 25 TO LOCALLY 30 KT. WHILE MARGINALLY LARGE
HAIL CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF STRONG AND
POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN GIVEN DCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER
DEEP-LAYER FORCING AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
..COHEN.. 07/06/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW...TFX...
LAT...LON 46960990 46310932 45950820 46500619 46530521 45760420
44470430 43840590 44300817 44811015 45281127 46131183
46881200 47261139 47281074 46960990
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