SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062038
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-062145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1527
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...WRN KS...SWRN NEB...SERN WY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 062038Z - 062145Z
A WW MAY BE NEEDED.
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT CONTINUE TO FOSTER THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION OVER THE FRONT RANGE
OF THE ROCKIES AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...AND OVER THE
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERLAYING
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S RESULTING IN MLCAPE
VALUES GENERALLY FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WLY FLOW
OF 20 TO 30 KT IN THE 3-6-KM-AGL LAYER PER DENVER VWP DATA WILL
SUPPORT SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION...WITH MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLS
POSSIBLE. DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LOCALIZED UPSCALE GROWTH RESULTING FROM MERGING
COLD POOLS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENHANCED DMGG WIND THREAT
OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS...MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
..COHEN.. 07/06/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 41920233 40030133 37970182 37240296 37180416 38160511
39380548 40480551 41510497 42140386 41920233
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