SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082152
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-082315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1544
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0452 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NY...CT...ERN PA...NJ...NERN VA...ERN MD...DE
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 610...
VALID 082152Z - 082315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 610
CONTINUES.
AT 2130Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF ERN PA...SRN NY...NRN NJ AND CT. FARTHER S OVER SRN NJ...NERN
VA...ERN MD AND DE...STORMS HAVE RECENTLY ORGANIZED INTO A
LINE...WHICH IS MOVING E AT AROUND 25 KT. MEANWHILE...SFCOA GUIDANCE
SHOWS AN AXIS OF MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG EXTENDING N-NEWD
ACROSS ERN VA INTO SRN NJ...WITH VALUES FALLING OFF TO 500-1000 J/KG
OVER NRN NJ...SRN NY AND CT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES /30-40 KT/
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND DISTRIBUTION OF
INSTABILITY...SVR WEATHER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE MOST ROBUST OVER
THE SRN HALF OF WW 610 AS ACTIVITY MOVES E TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COAST. OVER THE NRN HALF OF WW 610...DISORGANIZED NATURE OF STORMS
AND COOLING/STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS SVR WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL BE RELATIVELY LOWER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
..GARNER.. 07/08/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 42167523 42147190 38337523 38367835 42167523
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment