SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092228
UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-092330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1552
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0528 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ID...NWRN UT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 092228Z - 092330Z
ISOLATED/MARGINAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF SERN ID AND
NWRN UT. LIMITED NATURE OF THE THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED
FOR A WW.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND VIGOR OVER
NWRN UT AND SERN ID AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE 80S. THE
WARM/WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO
LOW 50S AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /FROM 8-9 C PER KM/ HAS
BOOSTED MLCAPE VALUES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...THE REGION
RESIDES ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF 35+ KT MIDLEVEL WLYS...AIDING IN
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES FROM 35-40 KT PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
GUIDANCE. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS AND THE MOBILE NATURE OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION...A FEW STORMS MAY STRENGTHEN TO SVR
LEVELS...POSING A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
..GARNER.. 07/09/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...LKN...
LAT...LON 42021406 42511367 43131224 43031106 41681110 39871192
39861419 42021406
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