SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100111
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-100245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1555
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0811 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...WRN KS...SWRN/SCNTRL NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 614...615...
VALID 100111Z - 100245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
614...615...CONTINUES.
WEAK ENELY LLVL FLOW TO THE N OF A HEAT LOW OVER SWRN KS HAS
MAINTAINED 60S SFC DEW POINTS WWD INTO THE PLAINS STORMS SW OF KGLD
THIS EVENING. ONE CELL IN PARTICULAR HAS SHOWN SUPERCELL CHARACTER
WITH HIGH WINDS AND HAIL PRIMARY THREATS. ACTIVITY WILL TRACK EWD
NEAR/S OF KGLD IN NWRN KS...BUT BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS AND INHIBITION BECOMES STRONGER FARTHER E.
FARTHER NW...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO STREAM OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NE CO WITH THE AID OF A SUB-TROPICAL WAVE MIGRATING ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME OF THESE STORMS...OR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...MAY
BRIEFLY ACHIEVE SVR LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SVR WINDS OVER THE
NERN CO PLAINS/SWRN NEB THROUGH 03Z.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THAT AS THE NOCTURNAL LLJ FORMS THIS
EVENING...REMNANT STORMS AND/OR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE
PLACE ENE ALONG/S OF A WEAK WIND SHIFT INTO SCNTRL/CNTRL NEB
OVERNIGHT. AT LEAST ISOLD STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS/HAIL
APPROACHING SVR LIMITS...BUT SVR PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE DOWNSTREAM OF CURRENT WW 614.
FINALLY...HIGH-BASED STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER SRN CO/SWRN KS IN
DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH DECREASED
INSOLATION. WW 615 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY.
..RACY.. 07/10/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 37880450 40650402 41269878 39439992 38670069 37120110
37170349 37880450
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