SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102102
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-102300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1561
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0402 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN NEB...ERN CO...FAR WRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 102102Z - 102300Z
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. ORGANIZATION MAY BE MESSY AT FIRST
WITH NO REAL FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING WHEN THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS
AS THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS NEB OR NWRN KS.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND
30-45 KT WITH SLIGHTLY VEERING VERTICAL WIND PROFILES.
THEREFORE...SOME SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS
MOVE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN BUT MORE LIKELY WITH STORMS THAT ARE NOW
FORMING OVER SWRN NEB INTO THE INCREASING UNCAPPED WARM SECTOR.
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-3000 J/KG FROM FAR ERN CO INTO WRN NEB/KS
WILL HELP SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND GIVEN LARGE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS/LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DAMAGING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED. GIVEN A LACK OF FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON OTHER THAN STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...COVERAGE MAY REMAIN
RATHER ISOLATED UNTIL A ROUGHLY 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO
INCREASE AROUND 00Z.
..LEITMAN.. 07/10/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40420019 39310057 38240100 37470144 37170190 37100251
37140316 37290378 37440411 37920420 38690419 40540327
41640247 42150192 42370133 42350072 42080023 41940020
41560009 40420019
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