SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112053
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-112230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1580
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN ID INTO SWRN MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 112053Z - 112230Z
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WHILE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN A MOIST AIR MASS HAS
LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
STORMS HAVE SHOW RATHER ROBUST UPDRAFTS AS CINH HAS ERODED /PER 20Z
MESOANALYSIS/ AND MLCAPE VALUE ARE NOW APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG.
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-8 C/KM PER BOI AND TFX 12Z
SOUNDINGS WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -12 C TO -15 C WILL HELP AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...SFC
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AROUND 30 DEGREES AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 9 C/KM INDICATED BY LATEST MESOANALYSIS WILL SUPPORT
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS.
STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH FOR LONG PERIODS OF TIME
WITH NO FOCUS FOR ORGANIZATION OTHER THAN PERHAPS AROUND 30-40 KT
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THEREFORE...BRIEF PERIODS OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.
..LEITMAN.. 07/11/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN...
LAT...LON 44611055 44331123 43641165 42761232 42111287 41981348
41951433 42301514 44051495 44811468 45561413 46081340
46291266 46461012 46020916 45380899 44970934 44721005
44611055
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