SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122048
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-122215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1595
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MO AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL TO SOUTHWEST
INDIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 636...
VALID 122048Z - 122215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 636
CONTINUES.
SEVERE TSTM WATCH 636 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND MORE SO DAMAGING WINDS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WIND
DAMAGE COULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN
AREAS ALONG THE MS RIVER NEAR/NORTH OF ST LOUIS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
IL.
PERSISTENT HP SUPERCELL CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST MO NEAR/WEST OF THE QUINCY
IL VICINITY AS OF 2030Z. AHEAD OF THIS STORM...ADDITIONAL/MORE
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE FORM OF TOWERING
CU/SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUES TO OCCUR ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR/NORTH OF THE ST LOUIS AREA TO GENERALLY NEAR I-64
IN SOUTHERN IL. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY VOLATILE AIRMASS IN PLACE
WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR /4000-5500 J PER KG MLCAPE/...STORM
CONSOLIDATION/UPSCALE GROWTH SEEMS PROBABLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITHIN A WNW-ESE AXIS FROM FAR EASTERN MO INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
IL AMID MODESTLY STRONG/VERY UNSTABLE SOUTHEASTERLY STORM RELATIVE
INFLOW. THUS...A GRADUALLY ACCELERATING FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS MAY
DEVELOP THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED WIND
DAMAGE THREAT MATERIALIZING ASIDE FROM EPISODIC LARGE HAIL.
..GUYER.. 07/12/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 39739203 40219103 40058893 39468773 38198732 37768863
38159058 39739203
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