MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1607

ACUS11 KWNS 132030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132030
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-132200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1607
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...DC/MUCH OF VA AND PORTIONS OF DE/NC/WV/MD/SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 638...

VALID 132030Z - 132200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 638
CONTINUES.

SEVERE TSTM WATCH 638 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS DC/MUCH OF VA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF DE/NC/WV/MD/SC.

WITHIN SEVERE TSTM WATCH 638...SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN WV/NORTHERN VA AND
EASTERN MD IN VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT. THE AIRMASS ALONG/SOUTH OF
THESE STORMS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED TO AS
HIGH AS 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL VA. WITH REGIONAL DERIVED
WINDS CONTINUING TO IMPLY A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN VA
AND EASTERN MD WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT
CONTINUING ASIDE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.

FARTHER SOUTH...OTHER/SOMEWHAT MORE ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN AN INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN/PIEDMONT
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR.
STORM MODE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY PULSE/STORM-SCALE DRIVEN IN
NATURE...ALTHOUGH A WEAK MCV NOW ENTERING WESTERN NC COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME MODEST CLUSTERING ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT/NORTHERN
SC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. REGARDLESS...DOWNBURSTS/DAMAGING WINDS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT AND MUCH OF SC...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL/MARGINAL HAIL ALSO
POSSIBLE.

..GUYER.. 07/13/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 38397944 38737807 39017609 38707555 36597714 34627916
33617943 35358171 36957969 38397944

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.