MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1626

ACUS11 KWNS 152039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152039
MTZ000-WYZ000-152245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1626
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL MT AND FAR N CNTRL WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 152039Z - 152245Z

STORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS S-CNTRL MT/N-CNTRL
WY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING. THESE
STORMS WILL THEN MOVE E/NEWD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL.

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CINH HAS BECOME WEAK. WITH CONTINUED HEATING THE CAP
WILL QUICKLY ERODE AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
AS SBCAPE VALUES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. FAST
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT/STRENGTH AND WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40-50 KT...SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE OFF OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO BETTER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF S-CNTRL AND SERN MT WHERE
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AS OF 20Z. MORNING SOUNDINGS
FROM TFX AND GGW INDICATED STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LATEST
MESOANALYSIS SUPPORTED THIS SHOWING VALUES AROUND 8 C/KM. GIVEN
FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN ADDITION TO THESE LAPSE
RATES...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...STRONG AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THESE STORMS WITH SFC TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS NEAR 30 DEGREES F
RESULTING IN DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000-1500 J/KG...MAINLY ACROSS THE
BYZ CWA.

BECAUSE THERE IS A LACK OF STRONG FORCING FOR STORMS OTHER THAN
DAYTIME HEATING AND A SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND FIELD
NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN...STORM COVERAGE MAY REMAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW INTENSE CELLS
DEVELOPING.

..LEITMAN.. 07/15/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

LAT...LON 45001077 44971154 45461192 46141207 46581184 47041064
47210897 47200801 47060695 46730590 46390537 45860527
45380532 44880567 44650600 44440658 44430703 44660763
44760912 44940993 45001077

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