SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152310
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-160015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1627
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND/FAR NERN SD AND NWRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 152310Z - 160015Z
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INVOF A
SW-NE ORIENTED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM SERN ND/FAR
NERN SD INTO NWRN MN. PROBABILITY FOR WW ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME IS
LESS THAN 40 PERCENT.
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS EXISTS FROM ERN SD INTO SERN ND AND NWRN MN
WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S. THIS COMBINED WITH
HEATING AND MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM ARE RESULTING
IN MODERATE TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-4000 J PER KG/
ALONG THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT. DESPITE THESE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS
THAT WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...A FEW LARGE SCALE
FACTORS APPEAR TO BE NEGATING GREATER STORM DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME. THE DISCUSSION AREA RESIDES BETWEEN TWO STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS...1/ MOVING EWD WITH AN MCS SERN MN/UPPER MS VALLEY AND 2/
MOVING NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...AND HEIGHTS ARE RISING ACROSS
ERN ND/NWRN MN. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THE AREAL COVERAGE AND
TEMPORAL EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY BE LIMITED AS
INDICATED BY THE 20Z WRF-HRRR AND 12Z WRF-NMM.
..PETERS.. 07/15/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 48399517 47949430 47399420 46679459 45919582 45629667
45629790 45579895 46119934 47079846 48399517
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