SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162147
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-162245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1634
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0447 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL CO...SERN WY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 162147Z - 162245Z
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS N CNTRL CO INTO
SERN WY. ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE
A WW ISSUANCE.
A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE OBSERVED ON 2130Z WV IMAGERY ACROSS NWRN CO/S
CNTRL WY IN COMBINATION WITH MOIST UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS
INFLUENCED AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...A LARGER SCALE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
IS LIKELY SUPPRESSING MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT. GENERALLY WEAK
INSTABILITY /500 J/KG OR LESS PER MESOANALYSIS/ APPEARS TO BE
INHIBITING STRONGER UPDRAFTS AS WELL...THOUGH THE EVOLUTION OF A
SEMI-ORGANIZED CLUSTER REMAINS POSSIBLE IF STORMS CAN PROGRESS ENEWD
INTO GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF NEB. 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW
AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT MAY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL ROTATION.
..HURLBUT.. 07/16/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 39160458 39360602 40420600 42040512 42760372 42490297
41980236 41130267 39160458
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