SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162214
MTZ000-162315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1635
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0514 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 162214Z - 162315Z
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL TO
NERN MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...CURRENT AND
FORECAST STORM COVERAGE PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A WATCH.
ESELY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO CENTRAL MT...N OF A FRONT WHICH
EXTENDED FROM NRN ND SWWD INTO SERN/S CNTRL MT...APPEARS TO BE THE
PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR STORM INITIATION THUS FAR ACROSS
CENTRAL MT. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND STRONG EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR PER 40-50 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS AND VERTICALLY VEERING
WIND PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS THIS REGION MAY BE LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ROBUST
ACTIVITY THUS FAR. 19Z EXPERIMENTAL WRF-HRRR SUGGESTS ONE OR TWO
STORMS WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL TO NERN MT AS CURRENTLY
OBSERVED WITH THE ACTIVITY IN PHILLIPS COUNTY. THIS MODEL ALSO
SUGGESTS SOME OF THE STORMS OVER SWRN MT WILL BE MAINTAINED...
TRACKING NEWD INTO CENTRAL/NRN MT. ALTHOUGH A FEW SEVERE STORMS
APPEAR POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING...CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS OVERALL
COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT A WATCH.
..PETERS.. 07/16/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
LAT...LON 48600672 48550435 47050428 46510723 46260921 46231063
46521151 47111187 47931192 48490982 48650760 48600672
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