SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232157
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-232330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1711
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0457 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB...SRN IA...NRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 232157Z - 232330Z
IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.
A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS NOW ADVANCING SOUTH THROUGH EAST OF
LINCOLN NEB MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN A
MID/UPPER MOISTURE PLUME EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU. WHILE
DEEP LAYER MEAN WESTERLY FLOW FIELDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ARE ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 KTS...THE SMALL
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ACTIVITY
APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THEN EASTWARD ALONG AN OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA...WHERE A CORRIDOR OF HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT /CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES/ IS CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE CAPE.
FURTHER UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
00-02Z TIME FRAME...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA. HEAVY PRECIPITATION
LOADING COULD EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALIZED STRONG
DOWNBURSTS...AND LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE UNSATURATED
ENOUGH FOR THE EVOLUTION OF A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A BROADER SCALE SWATH OF WINDS THAT COULD AT LEAST
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.
..KERR.. 07/23/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...
LAT...LON 41029597 41449542 41789386 41799303 41559166 41129140
40579157 40409217 40389353 40339495 40229620 41029597
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