MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1739

ACUS11 KWNS 252229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252229
OKZ000-TXZ000-260000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1739
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0529 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SWRN OK...PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 252229Z - 260000Z

ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE WET MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND
GUSTS. THE ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY SVR THREAT WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED
FOR A WW.

LATE AFTERNOON SFC MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1007-MB LOW NEAR FORT SILL.
A COMPOSITE FRONT / OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIES E-W ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK NEAR THE SFC LOW AND ARCS ESEWD TOWARD
THE RED RIVER OVER S-CNTRL OK AND N-CNTRL TX. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...SUFFICIENT HEATING AMIDST A RESERVOIR OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG.
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY...LOCALLY ENHANCED NEAR THE SFC
LOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE WEST OF THE SFC LOW...WHERE THE UNDERCUTTING NATURE
OF THE BOUNDARY COULD AID IN UNSTABLE PARCELS BEING LIFTED TO THEIR
LFC/S. OUTSIDE OF ONGOING CONVECTION...SFC TEMPERATURES FROM 95 TO
105 DEGREES SUPPORTING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES
OF 1000-1300 J/KG MAY PROMOTE WET MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND
GUSTS. WITH VERY MODEST WLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT OBSERVED IN THE
2-3.5-KM-AGL LAYER PER TWIN LAKES OK VWP DATA...SOME CONVECTION
COULD BE STEERED TOWARD PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER...WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE...CONVECTIVE IS FORECAST
TO EXHIBIT A PULSE MODE...WITH THE SVR THREAT VERY ISOLATED. AFTER
01Z...A WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED IN RESPONSE TO NOCTURNAL
COOLING.

..COHEN.. 07/25/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 35970011 36159950 36119890 35869823 35309745 34939725
34369733 34089762 34109810 34209951 34230144 34440252
35010231 35270160 35350063 35970011

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