SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262206
SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-262330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1754
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0506 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL SD...WRN AND CNTRL NEB...ERN CO...WRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 262206Z - 262330Z
IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE NEEDED...BUT
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING
SEVERE THREAT THAT COULD REQUIRE A WATCH.
MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCLEAR...BUT THE
INITIATION OF SCATTERED STORMS IS NOW UNDERWAY ALONG THE LEE SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WHILE DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN
FLOW FIELDS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 20 KT OR LESS...CAPE IS MODERATELY
LARGE IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES. AND LOW-LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW
POINT SPREADS. THIS PROBABLY WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS IN STRONGEST STORMS...WHICH MAY REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED
THROUGH 00-01Z. HOWEVER...IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING LATER THIS EVENING COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH...AND PERHAPS A MORE
ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT... PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
..KERR.. 07/26/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 39120338 40030311 41030299 42140238 43140162 43740126
43750026 43599992 42530042 41510127 39830170 39160223
39120338
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