SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272210
KSZ000-COZ000-272315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1766
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0510 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KS...FAR SERN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 272210Z - 272315Z
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DMGG DRY MICROBURST WINDS MAY EXIST THROUGH
THE EVENING HRS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL KS. COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF A WW.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HRS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN
DIURNALLY DRIVEN TCU/CB DEVELOPMENT /EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY/ OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND WRN KS INTO FAR SERN
CO...PRIMARILY OCCURRING ALONG AND NEAR A WEAKLY CONFLUENT FRONT.
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING /CHARACTERIZED BY SFC TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 100-115 DEG F/ HAS YIELDED SFC T-TD SPREADS NEAR 50-60
DEG F...ALONG WITH A DEEP AND DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER. WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR SHOULD FAVOR PULSE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...WITH
DOWNDRAFTS ENHANCED BY SIGNIFICANT EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL
/DCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG/ CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
DMGG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH BEYOND 01Z AS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF
DIABATIC HEATING.
..ROGERS.. 07/27/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...
LAT...LON 37519803 37099914 37120158 37290238 37620317 38280283
38510132 38619945 39049854 39329789 39329693 38509711
37519803
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment