SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280009
SDZ000-280215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1768
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0709 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN THROUGH CNTRL SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 280009Z - 280215Z
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WRN AND EVENTUALLY INTO CNTRL SD THIS
EVENING. STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND LARGE HAIL. WW ISSUANCE IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO POTENTIAL
LIMITING FACTORS FOR AN ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED SEVERE THREAT...BUT AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY AND THE BLACK
HILLS OF CO APPEAR TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF CONSOLIDATING INTO AN
MCS...BUT A FEW SUPERCELL STRUCTURES PERSIST. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE /1500-2000 J/KG/ MLCAPE. ELY POST FRONTAL
0-2 KM WINDS WILL MAINTAIN 15-20 KT STORM RELATIVE INFLOW...HELPING
TO SUSTAIN FORWARD PROPAGATION INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER. STORMS ARE EMBEDDED IN 40-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUGGESTING
POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED ORGANIZED STRUCTURES...BUT FLOW IN THE 0-3
KM LAYER WILL REMAIN WEAK. AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL
OCCUR WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK
0-3 KM FLOW RAISES UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT/DURATION OF A MORE
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
..DIAL.. 07/28/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...
LAT...LON 44800312 45270218 45230087 44390034 43520088 43470295
44800312
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