SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282240
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-290015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1775
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0540 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO INTO NORTHERN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 282240Z - 290015Z
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS MAY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITHIN A
CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN IA/FAR NORTHERN MO INTO NORTHERN IL.
DAMAGING WINDS/PERHAPS SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS UNCERTAIN...BUT
OBSERVATIONAL/CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
A FEW STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
IA...GENERALLY JUST WEST OF THE OTTUMWA/CENTERVILLE IA AREAS AS OF
2230Z. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
AND A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ANGLES
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THIS BOUNDARY/ASSOCIATED THICKER CLOUD COVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
STRONGLY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 3000-4500 J PER KG/ AMID MIDDLE 70S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS. WHILE THE AIRMASS IS VERY UNSTABLE...LACK OF
DISCERNIBLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND WARM THERMAL PROFILES
ALOFT PUTS THE DEGREE/EXTENT OF VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO
QUESTION. THAT SAID...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT /40+ KT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL FLOW AS PER DES MOINES AND DAVENPORT WSR-88D VWPS/ WOULD
SUPPORT FEW SUPERCELLS/SUSTAINED MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF WIND
DAMAGE/SOME HAIL AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
..GUYER.. 07/28/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 40259434 41039377 42079009 41608876 40688953 39919306
40259434
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