SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282302
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-290000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1776
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0602 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OH...WRN PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 695...
VALID 282302Z - 290000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 695
CONTINUES.
OVERALL CONVECTIVE TRENDS SHOW A NOTABLE WEAKENING OF TSTMS OVER
N-CNTRL AND NERN OH OVER THE PAST 1-2 HRS. THIS IS PROBABLY
OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO SLIGHT MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...ALONG WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN INSTABILITY
WITH THE LOSS OF PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. THE STRONGEST CORES ARE
CURRENTLY FOCUSED OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE WW...ACROSS SERN
PA...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING ISOLATED THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS. THESE
TSTMS ARE MOVING ALONG A LOW-LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT...BUT S OF
PRIMARY WIND SHIFT/WARM FRONT. EXPECTATION IS THAT STORMS SHOULD
SHOW A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH FURTHER
LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING...BUT A LOW-END THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS
COULD PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM CURRENT ACTIVITY.
..ROGERS.. 07/28/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 39897931 40238193 40538213 41378143 41598089 41347924
40777867 40317812 39797816 39727867 39797906 39897931
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