SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292217
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-292345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1788
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0517 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV/VA/MD/DE TO SOUTHERN NJ
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 292217Z - 292345Z
LINE OF STORMS MAY POSE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/SMALL HAIL THREAT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV/MD/VA/DE TO SOUTHERN NJ THIS
EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE OF
THE THREAT WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE.
A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ONGOING WITHIN A WSW-ENE CORRIDOR ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHERN PA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV/MD/VA/DE AND SOUTHERN NJ
THIS EVENING. THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH OF THESE
STORMS REMAINS VERY HOT/MODESTLY MOIST...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/RELATIVELY HIGH TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS CONDUCIVE FOR DOWNBURSTS
ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE ON STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT/WESTERLIES
ALOFT. FACTORS SUCH AS LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...COMBINED WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE BEING ORIENTED PARALLEL TO
THE MEAN FLOW...ARE SUGGESTIVE OF NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND/SMALL HAIL THREAT.
..GUYER.. 07/29/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 39638023 39717964 39747855 39807695 39807538 39437506
39087601 39257858 39428027 39638023
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