DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 110101
SWODY1
SPC AC 110059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AND VICINITY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE EWD
ACROSS OK/AR INTO MS AND VICINITY...

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...
VIGOROUS/SUPERCELL STORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM ACROSS WRN NEB AND THE
NEB PANHANDLE AND INTO ADJACENT NERN CO...WHERE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND
FAVORABLY VEERING/INCREASING FLOW WITH HEIGHT...THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST AS STORMS
REDEVELOP/MOVE SEWD WITH TIME TOWARD/INTO NWRN KS.

WEAKER INSTABILITY SWD INTO SWRN KS SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD DIMINISH AS STORMS PROGRESS SWD/SEWD. HOWEVER...WEAK
LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THIS REGION COULD SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT -- POSSIBLY APPROACHING NRN OK LATE.

...TX PANHANDLE EWD ACROSS OK/AR INTO MS AND VICINITY...
STORMS OVER MS/AL HAVE WEAKENED TO GENERALLY BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED DAMAGING GUST OR HAIL REPORT REMAINS
POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...STORMS ARE REDEVELOPING IN PARTS OF OK N OF
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY LYING W-E ACROSS OK. AS WEAK WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES A BIT TONIGHT...EXPECT STORMS TO LIKEWISE
INCREASE -- IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. MODERATE NWLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND SEWD STORM
MOTIONS...AND THUS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEARS
SUFFICIENT ACROSS THIS ZONE TO WARRANT SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE. SOME
QUESTIONS EXIST REGARDING BOTH WRN EXTENT OF NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT...AND EWD EXTENT OF STORMS/SEVERE THREAT
OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST ACTIVE AREAS EXPECTED TO BE PARTS OF OK AND
AR.

..GOSS.. 08/11/2011

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