SWODY1
SPC AC 160025
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2011
VALID 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS...
...NRN PLAINS...
A LINE OF STRONG STORMS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE SEWD ACROSS ND AND NWRN SD THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...FORCING
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION...CURRENTLY REFLECTED BY A FAST MOVING BATCH OF RAIN AND
EMBEDDED STORMS OVER E CNTRL MT INTO NRN WY. WITH A SLY LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING TO 20+ KT...THE LEAD CELLS MAY PERSIST FOR SOME
TIME...SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND THE REGION SHOW STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND AMPLE MOISTURE FOR A CONTINUATION OF SEVERE HAIL
THROUGH EVENING.
AS THE FORCING FROM THE W INTERACTS WITH THE STRONGER INSTABILITY
OVER ERN MT AND THE DAKOTAS...A SECONDARY AREA OF SEVERE HAIL AND
WIND MAY MATERIALIZE. SOME CIN DOES EXIST OVER MAINLY NERN MT AND
NWRN ND...AND THIS MAY HAMPER DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT.
...KS/OK/MO...
SCATTERED HIGH BASED AND LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST OVER
OK/N TX FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BUT ARE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY HEAT.
AS SUCH...RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND LOSS OF HEATING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DWINDLING OF THIS ACTIVITY. UNTIL THEN...A ROGUE
STRONG WIND GUST MAY OCCUR.
..JEWELL.. 08/16/2011
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