SWODY1
SPC AC 170538
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2011
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
AND NRN PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER NM INTO TX...WITH WNWLY FLOW
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LEE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM ERN WY INTO ERN
CO...WITH SELY SURFACE FLOW HELPING TO MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
60S F. TO THE S...A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE
KS/OK BORDER...EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WITH HOT
TEMPERATURES TO THE S AND A MOIST AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG AND N
OF THE FRONT.
...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
BENEATH A WNWLY FLOW REGIME...SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE FROM
THE BLACK HILLS SWD INTO ERN CO AS A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS. STRONG
HEATING...RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN STRONG INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LONG...GENERALLY STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LONG
LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL. AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES DURING THE EVENING...EXISTING SUPERCELLS MAY
ACQUIRE TORNADIC POTENTIAL AS LOW LEVEL SRH INCREASES WHILE
MAINTAINING EFFECTIVE SURFACE BASED PARCELS. HOWEVER...ANY TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
...OK/TX PANHANDLES...SRN KS...NWRN OK...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DELINEATE VERY HOT/DEEPLY MIXED AIR TO
THE S AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIR TO THE N WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
60S F. SCATTERED PULSE STORMS ARE AGAIN LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON
NEAR THIS FRONT...WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. NRN EXTENT OF
DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO HAVE A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT...GIVEN SLIGHTLY
MORE FAVORABLE/LONGER HODOGRAPHS OVER KS. AT THIS TIME...COVERAGE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A SLIGHT.
..JEWELL/LEITMAN.. 08/17/2011
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