SWODY1
SPC AC 250042
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2011
VALID 250100Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION...
...LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...
MUCH AS INDICATED BY MODEL GUIDANCE...A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE IS NOW DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
FEATURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE
MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY SPLITTING AWAY
FROM A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTER WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AN EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. ASSOCIATED FORCING
FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE CYCLONE CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. AND A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST
FOR A FURTHER INCREASE AND INTENSIFICATION OF ACTIVITY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...BEFORE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE.
LOWER/MID 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE STILL CONTRIBUTING TO MIXED
LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN OHIO. THIS IS WHERE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW MAY
STRENGTHEN INTO THE 40-50 KT RANGE THIS EVENING. COUPLED WITH
UNSATURATED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORTIVE
OF CONSIDERABLE EVAPORATIVE COOLING...A ZONE OF ENHANCED POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES...MAY STILL
DEVELOP WITH CONVECTION SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO THIS EVENING.
...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OREGON...
SCATTERED AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED DOWNSTREAM OF A
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTING TOWARD THE OREGON CASCADES. ALTHOUGH THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS
LOW...A BELT OF 30-40 KT 500 MB FLOW NOSING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION PROVIDES POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS
IN STRONGER ACTIVITY...UNTIL THE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS
TO COOL/STABILIZE MORE SUBSTANTIALLY TOWARD THE 03-04Z TIME FRAME.
..KERR.. 08/25/2011
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