SWODY1
SPC AC 290041
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2011
VALID 290100Z - 291200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
THE LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
FROM WRN NEB SWD INTO FAR ERN CO WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED
IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
CURRENTLY TAKING PLACE ON THE WRN AND SRN EDGE OF THE POCKET OF
INSTABILITY FROM ERN WY...SWD INTO NE CO AND TO AREAS SOUTH OF
GOODLAND KS. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY
EXIST FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. AS THE CELLS PULSE UP...MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL COULD OCCUR SO WILL KEEP A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF LOW-END SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
SEVERAL SMALL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN NCNTRL AND
FAR NERN ORE WHERE MESOANALYSIS ANALYZES A POCKET OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THE ACTIVITY
IS LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN AN AREA OF
STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THIS COULD HELP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING. COLD TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON
REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SUGGEST A HAIL THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THE MORE
INTENSE CELLS. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR BUT ANY SEVERE
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL.
..BROYLES.. 08/29/2011
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