SWODY2
SPC AC 230510
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2011
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER LOWER MI...NERN IL...NRN
IND...NWRN OH...
...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND FROM LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS IL/MO AND INTO NRN OK BY 00Z.
SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL MAINTAIN SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS.
...LOWER MI INTO NERN IL...IND...OH...
MORNING CONVECTION WITH PERHAPS A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE OUT BY MID MORNING...ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION DURING THE
DAY. FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND STRONG FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LEAD
TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INITIALLY AS SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF VERY LARGE HAIL. SIG HAIL THREAT MAY BE MITIGATED BY THE
RELATIVELY SHORT HODOGRAPH LENGTH...BUT MODERATELY STRONG MEAN WIND
THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT RAPIDLY MOVING STORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS. 700 MB WINDS WILL APPROACH 50 KT BY EVENING.
...MID MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS...
ELEVATED MORNING STORMS ARE LIKELY IN THIS REGION DRIVEN BY WARM
ADVECTION. PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND MARGINAL SHEAR
MAY ALLOW A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO CONTAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
AFTER THIS ACTIVITY WANES DURING THE LATE MORNING...STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL MATERIALIZE WITH A VERY MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS IN
PLACE. FORCING WILL BE WEAK INITIALLY BUT WILL INCREASE DURING THE
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SWD. ALSO...MORE VIGOROUS ACTIVITY TO
THE NE MAY BACK BUILD SWWD INTO THE REGION...WITH SOME WIND AND HAIL
THREAT.
..JEWELL.. 08/23/2011
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