SWODY2
SPC AC 270527
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2011
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
ASIDE FROM HURRICANE IRENE LIFTING NNEWD ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET SEVERE-WISE
DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL ENVIRONMENT IS DUE
PRIMARILY TO AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SWRN U.S. THAT HAS YET TO BREAK
DOWN AND RELINQUISH ITS INFLUENCE ON MUCH OF THE REGION.
...HURRICANE IRENE...
HURRICANE IRENE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NNEWD ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST AND LIKELY COME ASHORE OVER WRN LONG ISLAND EARLY SUNDAY
BEFORE EJECTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN ITS EXPECTED TRACK...MUCH
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...TO THE RIGHT OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WILL
EXPERIENCE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND AN INCREASE IN THETA-E AND
BUOYANCY. FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT UNSTABLE...BUT LIKELY ENOUGH TO WARRANT LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS.
FOR THIS REASON HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE LOW PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES WHERE STRONGEST SURGE OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS.
...ELSEWHERE...
A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION FROM AZ/NM...NWD INTO SWRN MT. ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST...OR PERHAPS EVEN SOME HAIL...MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS...OVERALL IT APPEARS MOST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AND DRIVEN
PRIMARILY BY DIURNAL HEATING TIED TO OROGRAPHIC FORCING.
..DARROW.. 08/27/2011
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