SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012218
MAZ000-RIZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-012315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1823
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0518 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MD...DEL...PORTIONS OF NJ...LONG ISLAND
NY...SRN NEW ENGLAND
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 711...
VALID 012218Z - 012315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 711
CONTINUES.
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS DISCRETE AND SMALL CLUSTERS OF
TSTMS ADVANCING SEWD TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. THESE TSTMS HAVE
FORMED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE AND WEAKLY CONFLUENT SFC COLD
FRONT...PLACED AT APPROXIMATELY 20 E MSV TO 20 SE CXY PER 22Z SFC
SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS MODEST /AROUND
20 KTS/ DUE TO WEAK AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER
HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE...SEVERAL OF THESE TSTMS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY
STRONG REFLECTIVITY CORES...LIKELY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR HAIL AND
ISOLATED DMGG DOWNBURST WINDS. EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT MOTION
SUGGESTS CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OVER SRN NY AND WRN CT SHOULD REACH THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY 23Z. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE FOR ADDITIONAL GENERATION OF TSTMS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 1-2 HRS. A GRADUAL TREND DOWNWARD IN TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIABATIC
HEATING.
..ROGERS.. 08/01/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...LWX...
LAT...LON 42727295 42697086 41217109 40637310 39747421 39117484
38807589 39017626 39467630 41237481 41837408 42727295
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