MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1844

ACUS11 KWNS 032244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032243
OKZ000-KSZ000-032345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1844
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0543 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...OK...KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 032243Z - 032345Z

AREAS ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER MAY EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN TSTM
COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL. THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AND DURATION OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH BEING ISSUED.

SCATTERED PULSE STORMS ACROSS CNTRL AND NW OK HAVE INCREASED IN
AREAL COVERAGE AND ARE DRIFTING TOWARD AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY
LOCATED ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW NORTH OF THE
FRONT/WIND SHIFT WAS WEAK NELY WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WAS SWLY ABOUT 20KT. IN ADDITION TO MESOSCALE ASCENT ON
DEVELOPING STORM OUTFLOWS...WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY BE PROVIDED
BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE CNTRL PLAINS AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. DESPITE THE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE SHEAR AND FORCING ACROSS
THE REGION...DCAPE VALUES IN THE UNPERTURBED AIRMASS ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AS SOME OF
THE STRONGER CORES COLLAPSE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
HOWEVER...LACK OF GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE AND
RANDOM/ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SUGGEST THAT A
WATCH IS UNLIKELY THIS EVENING.

..CARBIN.. 08/03/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 36529617 36139744 36149868 36269948 36439963 36889968
37199962 37489901 37579785 37569711 37319623 36949595
36529617

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