SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052225
SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-060030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1867
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0525 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN MT/NERN WY INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 729...730...
VALID 052225Z - 060030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
729...730...CONTINUES.
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL CONTINUES ACROSS THIS REGION.
LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN INITIAL BAND OF STORMS MOVING
EWD ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS ATTM...WITH A SECOND CLUSTER EVOLVING
ACROSS SERN MT AND ADJACENT N CENTRAL AND NERN WY. THIS SECOND BAND
OF STORMS IS INITIATING NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF A
WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ENEWD ACROSS SERN MT...WHILE
THE BAND OF STORMS FARTHER E IS ONGOING INVOF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS SRN ND INTO NRN MN.
WHILE NOT EXCESSIVE...GENERALLY WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT EWD PROGRESSION OF THESE STORMS CLUSTERS...AND ATTENDANT
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS OVER THE DAKOTAS ARE ALSO MOVING
THROUGH AN AIRMASS FEATURING MODERATE INSTABILITY /MIXED-LAYER CAPE
RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES/...AND
THUS LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH STRONGER CORES.
THOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELD WEAKENS WITH SWD EXTENT...SOME ISOLATED
POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE EXISTS WITH STRONGER CELLS DEVELOPING SWD
ACROSS SWRN SD INTO THE NEB PNHDL.
..GOSS.. 08/05/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...
LAT...LON 44140692 45700797 47210495 47980043 44940032 43160100
41360303 41030413 42360523 44090494 44140692
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