Saturday, August 6, 2011

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1875

ACUS11 KWNS 062249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062248
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-070045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1875
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0548 PM CDT SAT AUG 06 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH...FAR SERN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 062248Z - 070045Z

A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO
SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SLOW-MOVING E/SEWD
PROPAGATING SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS. THE PROBABILITY OF A WW ISSUANCE BY
01Z IS 20 PERCENT.

DISCRETE TSTMS CENTERED OVER FULTON COUNTY OH AND SERN LENAWEE
COUNTY MI HAVE EXHIBITED WEAK TO MODERATE LOW-LEVEL ROTATION DURING
THE PAST HOUR. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK PER AREA VWP
DATA...STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL WLYS HAVE RESULTED IN 35-40 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. WITH POOR 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES /AROUND 5-6 DEG C PER
KM/...TSTMS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL. BUT GIVEN
LOW TO MIDDLE 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS...MODERATE BUOYANCY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A SHORT-TERM THREAT OF ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS AND A
BRIEF TORNADO.

..GRAMS.. 08/06/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...

LAT...LON 41828384 41368219 40648187 40368211 40208272 40638394
40908461 41228478 41588479 41698465 41828384

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