SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072220
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-080015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1888
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN THROUGH EXTREME E-CENTRAL MO...SRN
IL...SERN KS...EXTREME NERN OK...EXTREME NWRN AR.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 735...737...
VALID 072220Z - 080015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
735...737...CONTINUES.
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH CENTRAL MO MCS MAY EXTEND BEYOND NRN/NERN
PORTIONS WW 737...AND ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED TO ITS E ACROSS
PORTIONS ERN MO AND IL. MEANWHILE...ANY SVR THREAT IN WAKE OF
COMPLEX IS LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED...AND OUT OF THOSE COUNTIES
REMAINING IN WW 735. THEREFORE...REMAINDER WW 735 MAY CONTINUE TO
BE REMOVED AS TSTMS CLEAR AREA. SVR POTENTIAL ALSO MAY INCREASE
OVER PORTIONS TRI-STATE AREA OF MO/KS/OK WITH INTENSIFYING TSTM
CLUSTER NOW LOCATED OVER SERN KS...WW POSSIBLE.
APEX OF MCS...WITH HISTORY OF DAMAGING GUSTS INCLUDING 82 KT IN
LAFAYETTE COUNTY AT ABOUT 2040Z...IS MOVING ESEWD 40-45 KT WITH
EPISODIC ACCELERATION. COMPLEX IS MOVING THROUGH POCKET OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR PROCESSED BY MORNING CONVECTION THEN DIURNALLY
MODIFIED OVER CENTRAL MO...WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPORARY
LEVELING OF ITS INTENSITY. HOWEVER...TSTMS SHOULD PROCEED FARTHER
ESE INTO MORE FAVORABLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODIFIED RAOBS AND
RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC TEMPS 90S AND DEW POINTS 70S F
CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE 2500-3500 J/KG. FORCED ASCENT OF THIS AIR
WILL CONTINUE ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE...SUPPORTING CONTINUED FORWARD
PROPAGATION OF COMPLEX...WITH VERY RICH INFLOW-LAYER MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTING TO ABUNDANT PRECIP LOADING AND ADDITIONAL PRODUCTION OF
DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS. ALTHOUGH NEAR-SFC WINDS ARE WEAK TO LIGHT WLY
IN ITS PROJECTED PATH...TRANSLATIONAL SPEED OF MCS WILL ENSURE
FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE FLOW AT/NEAR SFC. MLCINH IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AFTER DARK ACROSS PRE-MCS CORRIDOR DUE TO SFC DIABATIC
COOLING...BUT ONLY GRADUALLY GIVEN RICHNESS OF BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE. THEREFORE...EFFECTIVELY SFC-BASED INFLOW WILL PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS FOR ANY SUSTAINED/WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MCS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO INITIATION OF
STG-SVR TSTMS OVER SERN KS N-W OF CNU. ADDITIONAL TOWERS/CELLS ARE
DEVELOPING RAPIDLY AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS SERN KS AN SWRN
MO AS WELL. TSTMS THAT CAN MOVE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG ANY AGGREGATED COLD POOL...WILL ENTER TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN
RICH MOISTURE FARTHER E AND HOT/DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
CHARACTERIZING KS/OK BORDER REGION. THIS MAY SUPPORT SVR GUST
POTENTIAL AS WELL.
..EDWARDS.. 08/07/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...
LAT...LON 37899592 38059467 38409377 39129282 39249097 38958939
38678858 38228848 37328917 37199049 37239228 36889338
36249433 36299569 37759613 37899592
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