SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102234
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-110000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1936
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0534 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...MS...AL...FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 102234Z - 110000Z
SCATTERED PULSE AND LARGER MARGINALLY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF INTENSE
STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 50KTS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS PARTS OF MS AND
AL AND THE WRN PORTION OF THE FL PNHDL. DISORGANIZED AND SCATTERED
NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY...AND THE ISOLATED THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE
PRECLUDES A SEVERE TSTM WATCH AT THIS TIME.
A COMPLEX AND WEAKLY FORCED CONVECTIVE REGIME EXISTS ACROSS THE
SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH LONGER VISIBLE SATL LOOP DEPICTING AN ARRAY
OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS LEADING TO ROBUST STORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AIRMASS SURROUNDING THIS DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE AND EXPECT THAT ISOLATED DOWNBURST WIND THREAT
MAY EXIST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS NEAR BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS AND
INVOF COLLAPSING STORMS AND STORM MERGERS. BROADLY DIFFLUENT LARGER
SCALE UPPER FLOW AND A WEAK MID LEVEL MCV ACROSS NRN AREAS MAY ACT
TO SUSTAIN ACTIVITY FOR A BIT LONGER THAN DIABATIC INFLUENCES ALONE.
HOWEVER...IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND
NEGATIVE FEEDBACK FROM STORM INTERACTIONS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN WEAKER
DEEP-LAYER FLOW ACROSS SRN AREAS OF MS/AL AND THE FL PNHDL...WILL
LEAD TO A QUICK DEMISE OF STORMS IN THESE AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING
COMMENCES. OVERALL SCENARIO DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A WATCH BUT
THE ENTIRE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
..CARBIN.. 08/10/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 32108540 31138505 30408524 30318586 30518640 30778690
31018721 31418778 31608848 31388914 31368964 31539013
31789044 32179086 32509094 32799088 33109068 33469054
33779048 34109038 34389010 34678959 34878918 34918858
34618794 34358768 33848737 33238687 32108540
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